Week Three: Urban Mobility in 2050

I have been researching the future of cities, in particular the transport systems, to see what others have predicted. I have chosen to look to circa 2050 so that the solutions are not too far-fetched but are still relate-able and could be realistically implemented in this time frame.

I came across a good site and a man named Arthur D Little who had some interesting predictions of transport in cities in 2050. The article is called "Towards networked, multimodal cities of 2050" (click to view full article).

Little suggests that there will be massive investment in urban mobility in the future. He says the challenge for cities will be to be "able to get around urban areas quickly, conveniently and with little environmental impact". Little recognises that improving existing mobility systems is a MUST not an option - as they are close to breakdown. He states that "by 2050 the average time an urban dweller spends in traffic jams will be 106 hours per year, three times more than today", which is significant as congestion in cities is a major issue in many cities worldwide.

Little also highlights that in order for urban mobility systems to be successful, they need to be applied comprehensively so that all facets of the problem are addressed. Innovation is also an important factor, where Little recognises that "the [current] management of urban mobility operates globally in an environment which is hostile to innovation".

Little goes on to then identify "Three Strategic Imperatives for Cities":

1.   Network the System: "For high performing cities the next step must be to fully integrate the travel value chain, increasing convenience by aggressively extending public transport, implementing advanced traffic management systems and further reducing individual transport through greater taxation and road tolls."

2.   Rethink the System: "Cities in mature countries with a high proportion of motorized individual transport need to fundamentally redesign their mobility systems so that they become more public and sustainability orientated."

3.   Establish Sustainable Core: "For cities in emerging countries the aim must be to establish a sustainable mobility core that can satisfy short term demand at a reasonable cost without creating motorized systems that need to be redesigned later. With access to new and emerging transport infrastructure and technologies these cities have the opportunity to become the testbed and breeding ground for tomorrow’s urban mobility systems."

The concept of creating a multimodal design network of transport within the city itself is an idea that intrigues me and I will explore further. The solution would have to be highly integrated to allow for the fluidity and efficiency of public transport, so that people can RELY on it to take them where they need to go. Also, as it was previously mentioned, INNOVATION is the key to ensuring a highly thought out and well-planned design, where CONVENIENCE, EFFICIENCY and SUSTAINABILITY are the focus. In our project, congestion charges have been introduced and the city, and people will most likely travel by car through the city ONLY if they have to go through it. The focus will shift to finding alternative means of transport WITHIN the city. The integrated, multimodal, urban mobility solution would have to be implemented on a large scale to promote uptake by the people in order for it to be widely accepted.